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NEW HAMPSHIRE'S DEMOGRAPHICS CR New Hampshire has been characterized as a "white" state by critics of the New Hampshire primary, a state that lacks a minimal amount of diversity that a state with such an influential contest should possess. New Hampshire is indeed one of the least diverse states in the country with 94 percent of the adult population identified as white in 2013 according to the American Community Survey conducted by the US Census. CR Hispanics or Latinos of any race make up 3 percent of the state population, but are growing at a faster rate than other minority groups, increasing by 79 percent between 2000 and 2010. Minority populations are greatest in Nashua and Manchester, but there are significant pockets in other smaller cities and towns. Asians make up 2.4 percent of the population, followed by African Americans. CR Although it is small, the minority population in New Hampshire has been growing in recent years, growing more by migration and by natural increase than the white population. But it will be decades before the minority population of New Hampshire increases to the levels seen in most other states. New Hampshire is not representative of the diversity in other parts of the country or even of either of the major political parties. Both of the political parties, especially the Democratic Party, have much higher minority representation among their voters elsewhere in the country. CR New Hampshire, like other states in the northeast, is older than the nation. Using 2013 Census estimates, New Hampshire is the third oldest state in the country. The median age in New Hampshire is 42 and has been increasing in recent years as the baby boomers age. CR But this does not mean that New Hampshire is full of old people who might strain its social safety net, at least not yet. In fact, 15 percent of its population is 65 or older, only slightly more than as the nation as a whole. This compares favorably with other New England states. For example, neighboring Maine has a median age of 44 and Vermont is 43. But in Maine, 18 percent of the population is 65 or older and 16 percent in Vermont. CR In recent decades, New Hampshire has done an excellent job attracting people from surrounding states who are in their 30s and 40s, many of whom have children. This is the primary reason that the median age in New Hampshire is quite high, yet it manages to remain an economically robust state as people between 30 and 60 are in their prime earning years, are at optimal ages for starting new businesses, and are buying products for their homes and for their children. There is concern, however, that if New Hampshire's rates of in-migration do not pick up in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the state will face the burdens of caring for a larger pool of elderly residents without the help of people in the midst of their careers. CR New Hampshire residents are also a tad more likely to be married than are people across the country, reflecting the higher percentage of people in their child rearing years and the higher levels of education and income of Granite State households. CR New Hampshire has a much more highly educated population than the country as a whole and this translates directly into higher levels of income. Nearly one-third of New Hampshire adults have at least a four-year college degree, with one in eight having an advanced degree, trailing only Massachusetts and Connecticut on this measure. High levels of education typically result in higher incomes, and the median household income in New Hampshire is $65,000, almost $12,000 higher than median household income nationally. CR Because of this high level of income, it might be argued that New Hampshire residents do not understand the hardships endured by people in poverty in other parts of the country. In particular, New Hampshire does not have any large cities and does not experience the magnitude of urban poverty that other states do. The poverty rate in New Hampshire has been the lowest in the country for several years. In 2011, the poverty rate for New Hampshire was 7.7% percent while the national rate was nearly twice as high. However, the northern parts of the state as well as older mill towns have significant pockets of poverty. CR Maybe Andy and I freelance here a bit on the effects of the lack of ethnic/racial diversity on the significance of the New Hampshire Democratic primary. For instance, we could talk about how, on the one hand, you could see the split between upscale, well educated "Volvo" Democrats for Obama , and more middle-class / working-class whites for Hillary. But the decision of minority voters, however, had to wait for states such as South Carolina. |
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Migration into New Hampshire CR New Hampshire is unique in the northeast in that it is the only state that has experienced significant population growth in recent decades. While it slowed late in the 2000s, as the stalled housing market prevented people from selling their homes and moving north, population in New Hampshire still grew at a much more rapid clip than in any of the neighboring states. CR Migration into New Hampshire that has kept the state growing at a faster pace than its New England neighbors is due primarily to several factors. Some of these were identified in a survey conducted for the Boston Globe in 2006 which found that the top three reasons people moved from Massachusetts to New Hampshire were the cost of housing, lower taxes, and the political environment. CR Inexpensive housing, and inexpensive land available for housing, has been a driver for suburbanization across the country and this has also been true for Boston. An average house in the northern Boston suburbs typically costs $100,000 or more than a similar sized house in southern New Hampshire, without significantly adding to commute times. CR As the Greater Boston suburbs have sprawled, particularly with the development of technology companies, retail, and other manufacturing companies on the Route 128 and Interstate-495 corridors north and west of Boston, the need to have an easy commute into the core of Boston became less important. Concurrent residential development occurred west of Boston and also over the border into southern New Hampshire. CR Rockingham County in the southeastern corner of New Hampshire saw its population nearly triple between 1960 and 2010, from 99,029 to 295,223. The median price of a detached home in Rockingham County in 2009 was $372,305, the highest in any New Hampshire county but considerably less than $482,856 in neighboring Essex County, Massachusetts. Low cost housing has provided a major financial incentive to living in the Granite State. CR A second important factor in New Hampshire's growth, also identified in the Globe survey, is that it has never had a "broad based" tax, that is, either an income or general sales tax. Lower taxes make New Hampshire, for many, a much more attractive place to live than other New England states. This is particularly true for small business owners and consultants who report their business income with their personal income taxes. New Hampshire residents pay no broad-based sales or income tax, compared to a 5.3 percent income tax and a 6.25 percent general sales tax Massachusetts residents pay. But the lack of a sales or income tax also means that most New Hampshire residents pay high property taxes. In 2009, the Tax Foundation found that New Hampshire residents paid $5,244 per year in property taxes on a home of median value , the fourth highest property taxes in the country. Despite high property taxes, New Hampshire has consistently ranked near the bottom of the list of states in terms of the total state and local taxes paid by residents. In 2009, the Tax Foundation ranked New Hampshire 44th out of 50 states in the overall amount paid in state and local taxes and it has been among the 10 lowest taxed states as measured by the Tax Foundation since the 1970s. CR A third important factor in New Hampshire's growth is that it is consistently rated as one of the best places in the country to live. It has a beautiful natural environment with the White Mountains, hundreds of lakes, and a short seacoast with popular beaches. Morgan Quinto Press regularly ranks New Hampshire as one the best state in the country to live and CQ Press regularly names New Hampshire the most livable state. And between 2002 and 2012, the Annie E. Casey Foundation rated New Hampshire as the best state to raise children ten times, and it came in 2nd place in 2007. Low crime, good schools, a vibrant economy, and an attractive environment are all cited as advantages for New Hampshire. CR New Hampshire's population has grown largely through domestic migration from other states - primarily Massachusetts, Maine, other New England states and other states in the Northeast. The result is that only 43 percent of New Hampshire residents were born in the Granite State. CR But the recent stall in the growth of New Hampshire's population, coupled with its slow economic climb out of the Great Recession, has many in the Granite State questioning whether the state will regain its mojo. While its rival to the south, Massachusetts, has enjoyed robust economic gains in the past several years , New Hampshire is wondering how to retain its young people once they enter the workforce, let alone attract those from out of state. Local public policy expert Steve Norton of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies has warned of an impending "silver tsunami," when its relatively high number of Baby Boomers retire and dramatically change the state's calculus for paying health care costs. |
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Political Ideology of New Hampshire CR Behind party registration and party identification lies the concept of political ideology. Many researchers have commented on the increased polarization of the American electorate, which has resulted in a moderate to liberal Democratic Party and a moderate to Conservative Republican Party. Specifically, there are few conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans left, either as elected officials or in the electorate. CR This pattern of partisan polarization has also occurred in New Hampshire. But before we get into the details, let's look at the political ideology of the entire state. This chart shows that despite dramatic shifts in political control, overall there has been little change in the political ideology of the people of New Hampshire in the past 12 years. CR In November 1999, 46 percent of New Hampshire adults identified as conservative, 20 percent as moderates, and 34 percent as liberals. In 2012 the state is only slightly more conservative -- 53 percent now consider themselves conservative, 14 percent moderate and 33 percent liberal. But there have been some fluctuations over the years, owing both to the vagaries of public opinion polling as well as short term politics. If we had looked at the half-way point in this data series , we would have concluded that the state had become slightly more liberal: Only 46 percent identified as conservative, 16 percent as moderate, and 38 percent as liberal. CR Looking specifically at self-identified Republicans, we see evidence of ideological polarization over the past decade. In late 1999, 69 percent of New Hampshire Republicans identified themselves as some shade of conservative , 25 percent as moderates and only six percent as any kind of liberal. But by 2012, 88 percent of New Hampshire Republicans identified themselves as conservative , only seven percent as moderates and five percent as liberals. Republicans in New Hampshire have become somewhat more conservative, as measured by this poll question, than they were a decade ago. But self-identified moderate and liberal Republicans are making somewhat of a comeback over the past year. CR There has also been polarization among New Hampshire Democrats, but not quite as strong as among Republicans. In 1999, 61 percent of self-identified Democrats said they were liberal , 22 percent said they were moderates, and 17 percent were conservatives. By 2012, 69 percent of Democrats said they were liberal, an eight percentage point increase , only 14 percent said they were moderates, and 18 percent said they were some stripe of conservative. CR But again, the long-term trend hides some rather large changes over time. In late 2006, only 19 percent of Democrats said they were moderate and 11 percent said they were conservative, in line with the anti-Republican, anti-conservative tenor of the 2006 elections. CR When we turn our attention to self-identified political independents , we see considerable short-term variation, but not much long-term change. New Hampshire independents tend to reflect national political trends, becoming more liberal in the mid-2000s as unpopularity with President Bush increased, and more conservative as the economic downturn of 2008 continued. In late 1999, 11 percent of New Hampshire independents said they were either extremely or fairly liberal, 16 percent were somewhat or moderately liberal, 32 percent were true moderates, 31 percent were somewhat or moderately conservative, and 10 percent said they were fairly or extremely conservative. By 2012, 11 percent of New Hampshire independents said they were either extremely or fairly liberal, eight percent were somewhat or moderately liberal, 32 percent were true moderates, 22 percent were somewhat or moderately conservative, and 26 percent said they were fairly or extremely conservative. CR In conclusion, political parties in New Hampshire have become somewhat more ideological, much as the nation has, in the past thirteen years. New Hampshire Republicans have become somewhat more conservative and to a lesser degree, so have New Hampshire independents. Democrats have become somewhat more liberal during the same period. But this measure, although useful in tracking broad changes over time, doesn't help us understand how Republican and Democratic primary voters think about the issues of the day. CR Looking ahead to 2016, any political change in New Hampshire will be minor. Typically, people do not change their partisanship in their lifetimes, although the intensity of their partisanship may wax and wane because of economic booms and busts or because of problems in foreign affairs. We can expect that the kind of candidates that were attractive in 2008 and 2012 should be attractive in 2016 and the kind of candidates who were not attractive, particularly social conservatives, are not likely to get much traction in 2016. |
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Religion has been a key factor in politics and elections for much of the United States' history. When asked their religious preference in 2012, 36 percent of New Hampshire adults identified as Protestants, 34 percent as Catholic, one percent said they were Jewish, and five percent said they were of some other religion. Almost one-quarter of New Hampshire adults said they have no religion. This is significantly different from the United States as a whole. According to a 2007 Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life study, 51 percent of Americans identified as Protestants, 24 percent as Catholics, 2 percent as Jewish, 7 percent with some other religion, and 16 percent did not identify with any religion. CR Political scientists and sociologists have noted that measures of "religiosity," how important religion is in a persons' life or how often they pray or attend church, are more important to politics than religious affiliation. According to a Gallup study in 2009, New Hampshire ranked second lowest in the country on the importance of religion in its residents' lives. While 65 percent of Americans said that religion is an important part of their daily lives, only 46 percent of New Hampshire residents said it was. New Hampshire residents are also not regular church goers: Only 27 percent say they go at least once a week, 10 percent a few times a month, 28 percent a few times a year, and 34 percent say they never attend church services. A 2010 Gallup survey found that 43 percent of adults nationwide attended religious services at least once a week. CR Religion may be something that is not important for many Granite Staters, but it still is a key predictor of how people vote and what issues are important to them. According to a UNH poll, 57 percent of voters who said they attend church services at least once a week said they would vote for John McCain while 73 percent of voters who said they never attend church said they would vote for Barack Obama. CR ANDY AND I FREELANCE HERE A BIT ON THE IMPORTANCE OF RELIGIOSITY TO REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, ESPECIALLY EVANGELICALS. This is a group mostly absent from New Hampshire politics. Social conservatives do not have much influence here, compared to Republican Parties in other states. Social issues tend to split the Republican Party here, not unify it. Andy, what % of NH Republicans describe themselves as pro-choice? Pro-gay marriage? Still rare to see pro-choice GOP nominees for statewide office, though Walt Havenstein was one such for Governor in 2014. CR That has made it difficult for winners of the Iowa caucuses to ride Momentum into New Hampshire. Cases in point: Huckabee in 2008, Santorum in 2012. Not friendly ground for social conservatives here who make that issue one of their most important. CR In conclusion, New Hampshire is a highly educated, upper middle class, low poverty, white, suburban state with a lower than average religious population. It stands out from the rest of the country in all of these categories. Critics of New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status often point to one or more of these factors as disqualifications for its disproportionate impact on the nomination contest. But while New Hampshire may have a demographic profile that places it outside the national average, this does not mean that its political profile is out of step with either of the major parties or the country as a whole. As Northeastern University political science professor Bill Mayer puts it, "the question of New Hampshire's representativeness is often raised - and vary rarely answered in the proper way…. The key question in a primary - is whether the state Democratic party, whatever its size, is representative of the national Democratic party." |